Miracles, Odds, and Canadian Dominance: A 2010 Olympic Men’s Hockey Overview

by Peter Stenson

If five-year-old Josh Sacco’s rehearsing of Herb Brook’s “miracle” speech doesn’t get you fired up for one of the best tournaments in the sporting calendar, you either don’t have a pulse or aren’t from a state covered in snow right now.

In less than a month, the 2010 Olympic Men’s Hockey Tournament will be underway at General Motors Place in Vancouver, Canada. The location for the tournament is significant, not only because Canadians love hockey like Joey Chestnut loves hotdogs dunked in water, but also because it marks the first time in Olympic history when the hockey games will be played on a smaller NHL-sized rink instead of the traditional Olympic-sized sheet of ice. This may serve to level the playing field, or at least clog up the neutral zone, which could result in the long-shot nations having a chance against the Canadian and Russian powerhouses. Or it may just result in a more boring style of play.

That being said, I do not see any miracles unfolding in this tournament.

According to Oddsmaker.com, Team Canada is a virtual lock to win in Vancouver with a measly +100 line. From top to bottom, the Canadian roster is the who’s who of the NHL. Starting in net, Marin Brodeur, the NHL career shutout leader, will more than likely get the start. If he falters, Vancouver Canuck Roberto Luongo will get the nod. Moving to the blue line, Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer will be reunited and provide a fierce one-two combo as they did in Anaheim. Up front, you can take your pick. Players like Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla and Joe Thornton should be scoring at will. As of nearly halfway through the NHL season, five out of the top ten goal scorers will be wearing a Canadian jersey in February. That is simply ridiculous. They have power, finesse, grit, and style. The only way Canada does not win is if the gold-or-bust attitude demanded from them by the home ice fans acts like a noose around their necks.

Russia is predicted as a close second to Canada with a line of +220. The all-stars not on the Canadian line up, well, they are Russian. Perhaps with the most impressive list of forwards in the tournament, Russia will skate players like Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuck, Evgeni Malkin and Pavel Datsyuk. When a player like Alexander Semin may be a third-liner, your chances are pretty good at gold. In net they have their choice between Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya Bryzgalov. The Achilles heel of Russia may be their defense. Other than Andrei Markov and Sergei Gonchar, Russia’s blue liners appear to be a little thin. The NHL-sized ice may also hinder the extraordinary hands and passing of many of the Russian snipers.

Defending champions, Sweden, also have a substantial shot at gold with a line of +400. Returning with 13 of 23 players from the gold medal team in 2006, Sweden boasts an impressive veteran-lead roster. Pretty much every red-bearded Detroit Red Wing will be wearing blue and gold jerseys this Olympics (Nicklas Lindstrom, Nicklas Kronwall, Tomas Holmstrom, Henrik Zetterberg). With these players, plus the playmaking of the Sedin twins, Sweden could very easily find themselves playing for a repeat championship. The major concern is how those aging legs will hold up deep into February.

Las Vegas apparently does not believe in miracles if they are giving Team USA a +1,000 line. A very young and fast USA team may prove to be a bit of a wildcard in the 2010 Olympics. With Ryan Miller, the NHL leader in save percentage and second in goals per game, in net, USA may be able to rustle some feathers if they play a close checking, defensively minded game. They have a solid blue line held down by Brooks Orpik, Brian Rafalski and Ryan Suter. Up front, players like Dustin Brown, Patrick Kane, Jamie Langenbrunner and Phil Kessel will provide a nice mix of grit and finesse. But is this enough firepower to contend?

The three remaining teams that could make some noise in Vancouver are Finland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Finland, the silver-medal winners in 2006, is built around the impressive goaltending tandem of Niklas Backstrom and Mikka Kiprusoff. With Olli Jokinen and the Koivu brothers, Finland has an outside shot at repeating their previous success. The Czech Republic will have plenty of goal scoring ability with Jaromir Jagr, David Krejci, Martin Havlat and Patrick Ellias. However, Tomas Vokoun’s erratic play in net could be their undoing. Rounding out the list of long shots is Slovakia, who like the Czech, have a dangerous forward line of Pavol Demitra, Marian Gaborik and Marian Hosa. Their fate rests with the Peter Budaj between the pipes.

So how does it all shake out? Who takes the podium, gold around their necks? I’m glad you asked.

Skipping to the quarterfinals, it looks like this – Canada over Germany, Sweden over Slovakia, Russia over Czech Republic, and USA squeaks by Finland.

In the semis, Canada proves too much for an inexperienced USA. In an upset, Sweden defeats Russia, the telekinetic passing of the Sedins paving the way.

For the gold? Canada destroys Sweden.

The USA gets the bronze against a disinterested Russian side.

So sit back, go to youtube and watch the five-year-old Sacco rally a nation, go rent Miracle, and wait. In less than a month it’s really the only two weeks out of every four years that matter.